The Slow, Almost Imperceptibly Gradual Decline Of Microsoft

The market share of the Mac recently jumped to 4.7% from 3.6% only a year ago, a close to 30% increase in 12 months, and a 50% increase from a few years ago, and there's every indication they're building momentum. The Buzz over the new Mac OS is much stronger than the buzz was over Windows Vista (which is selling underwhelming numbers). With versions of Linux making additional gains, that brings the overall market share of non-Windows OS to about 7.5% and climbing. In a few years Windows market share could drop from what used to be total domination of the market to below 90%.

It might seem like a small number now, but it indicates a sea change, and it marks an end to Window's iron grip on it's market. 10 years ago, more or less 100% of the software people used was Microsoft. They devoured Netscape, Wordperfect, Post-Steve Jobs Apple, and pretty much every other company that dared cross their path.

But times have changed over the last 10 years. Our Search Engine is Google. Our web-based email is Yahoo mail, not the Hotmail of just 5 years ago. In growing numbers, our browser is Mozilla Firefox. And at an alarming rate, our Operating Systems are becoming OS X and Linux for many.

When Bill Gates entered the scene, the PC market was dominated by brilliant tech people with great ideas and not a lot of business acumen, and suit-and-tie corporate types like IBM that had money and ambition, but didn't have the vision required to blaze new trails. Bill Gates was vicious enough to swim with the sharks, and smart enough to know what was going on in tech-world. He took those ideas when slow-footed corporations with more money didn't see the vision, and ate everyone alive.

But times have changed. The corporations are getting more tech savvy, and the tech savvy are getting more business-oriented. Steve Jobs came back with a vengeance, and this time Apple has the business side of things down too. The Phd-types that run Google looked like Bill Gates shark-food at first, but Microsoft failed to crush them.

The Zune, the so called "ipod-killer", is dead in the water, selling far below ipod numbers. It even sells less than upstart music player Sandisk. Recently the head of the Zune department resigned. Absolutely disgraceful given Microsoft's reputation as a giant that wins every game it plays.

Microsoft is a huge corporation, a behemoth that controls large chunks of an entire industry, and even if they enter decline it'll take a decade before anyone really notices. But the days when everything Microsoft touched it destroyed are over. Consumers are more tech-savvy than they used to be, and they're starting to notice that so much of what Microsoft does is just imitations of other companies. They'll be a huge company for years to come, but things have changed. They're not the only game in town anymore.