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Thursday, November 22, 2007

50,000 Visits

About 9 months into it's existence, this humble little blog just passed the 50,000 visits mark. It's actually closer to 51,000 now- in the last day or so someone submitted that "Leopard outselling Windows in Japan" story to digg.com and spiked my traffic by about a thousand hits.

In the grand scheme of things, that's like a tenth of what a really big website gets in a day. But I'm still pretty happy and surprised by how much traffic this blog gets. I don't do anything to promote it, and usually only post every few days.

Off to Tokyo for a 3-day work-related conference tomorrow. Back Monday, Tuesday or so for posting purposes.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Japan's Foreigner "Problem"

Japan's birthrate is among the lowest in the world, and the population is aging and shrinking at an astonishing rate. In the past, getting into University in Japan used to be insanely hard and competitive given the limited space, but in a few years, there will be more seats at Universities than there will be children in the entire country to fill them. Younger trainees at jobs seem to be getting dumber and less competent all the time; the companies have to take literally whoever they can get.

Japan will need to import hundreds of thousands of workers from other countries just to keep their economy going. All those Toyotas they sell to America aren't going to make themselves.

The problem is, Japan is a culturally homogeneous country, and they don't take well to outsiders, even to Japanese born in other countries. As the BBC reported, Japan has deigned to let Brazillian-born children of Japanese emigrants to return, (there are more of them here than there are Americans, Canadians, Australians and English put together), but even they have faced discrimination.

So if Japanese people that for the most part speak Japanese, and often came here at the age of say 9, but just didn't happen to be born here have trouble fitting in, you can imagine how hard it is for everyone else.

Rather than embracing foreigners, which they desperately need, Japan seems to be getting more xenophobic. In response to crime and a call to take Japan back to what it was 50 years ago in terms of safety (it's still the safest country in the world, but whatever), Japan is now insisting that foreign visitors, even long term residents with families here, get finger-printed every time they re-enter the country. They claim this is to curb Terrorism (how many foreign terrorist attacks have there been here? Oh, that's right- NONE), and crime- which is ridiculous, considering that the crime rate for immigrants here is LOWER than it is for the average Japanese! It's just that foreign crime gets reported like crazy when it happens.

A lot of Japan bloggers have been talking about this, and understandably a lot of foreign residents are angry at being treated like criminals without any logical, reasonable, statistically justifiable basis.

Personally, I don't mind much myself. Just a slight extra delay at the airport. What bothers me though is that if this is the government's idea of solving the nation's woes, we're in trouble. Because if blind scapegoating of foreigners is their idea of problem solving, they're clearly too stupid to do anything effective.

I suspect the finger-printing scheme is a remnant from Abe's immensely unpopular and since ousted regime. Hopefully things will improve from here. But if not, here's a bottom line to the government- face it guys, you need us to support your economy and keep your country running, so you're going to have to learn to live with us. If you don't and continue the scapegoating, you'll wind up with more stolen cars, not less (read the Brazilian link for more on that one).

One way or another, Japan will have to enter the future. It may always be uniquely Japanese, but to survive and remain strong, it will also have to become more international and more tolerant of differences. For your own sake, and for the country's, don't bury your heads in the sand and screw it up.

(BTW- While I think it's a real problem, personally I'm not quite as bitter about this as I sound...if you wonder how I hold up living here in the midst of all this, all those stories and political decisions are coming out of the East, around Tokyo. I live in the South, which is a different vibe. Fukuoka actually has the highest number of foreigners per capita of any city in Japan, and while it's tougher for me to find hard numbers on this, quite likely the highest degree of racial tolerance in Japan. It's kind of like living in Berkley or San Francisco, and reading about what Bush is up to...

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

The closest thing you'll see to the Colbert Report in a while



The writer's strike continues...this time the Colbert Report writers are putting in their two cents. This guy is obviously less polished, but he does a great job imitating Colbert! And he talks exactly like him, and has the same quality of jokes.

Bonus- Some writers are considering leaving TV altogether, and living off self-produced web content. (Fun fact- the writer of that essay is Marc Andreesen, inventor of the web browser.

Check out Will Ferrell's new web-based comedy "Funny or Die", one of the first stabs at the net-based system described above. Awesome! I like "Green Team".


The writers/casts of Saturday Night Live and 30 Rock isn't even waiting for the future, they're putting on theatrical shows of what would have happened on their shows if they had been on these past few weeks...and using the proceeds to help out their crew members that NBC so coldly fired in light of the strike. Too bad the theater only held 150 people...they should do multiple nights!

I think this is a great idea. If the writers of the Daily Show put on an off-broadway show once or twice a week to keep money coming in during the strike and got some of the cast member/writers like John Oliver to perform , I would gladly pay for it. If John Stewart made an appearance to help them out I would pay big bucks.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Sumo Wrestling in Fukuoka!

video

There are 6 tournaments in Japan per year, 2 in Tokyo, one in Nagoya, one in Osaka, and the final one of the year here in the cradle of Japanese civilization, Kyushu.
So there have been Sumo wrestlers everywhere in Fukuoka for the past couple weeks preparing for the tournament. The fights go on from 9-6 for 15 days. If you buy a ticket you can stay all day.

So I went down to the exhibition center to get cheap tickets for me and my girlfriend for about $30 each, hard little hockey-arena-esqe seats about as far from the action as possible. But they were all sold out, and the next class of seats (The Masu-sekis, were you sit closer to the ring on little purple cushions on the ground) started at $70 each, going as high as $140.

I'm busy this week, and I go to Tokyo next weekend for a conference, so yesterday was the last chance to see it. Eventually I said screw it and got the Masu-seki tickets. I'm earning a lot more now...what's the point of working for it if I never enjoy it?

It was good stuff, I want to go again next year. This is the final fight of the night, taken with my cell phone (ignore that weird watermark blocking some of the screen...the video converter software did it, and it was literally the only one of like 10 programs I downloaded that actually worked).

The guy on the left is Yokozuna, the highest level of Sumo. Only about 68 or so wrestlers have been honored with that title in the past 330 years. The guy on the right is newer to the higher ranks. Probably the only reason they're even fighting is because a grand champion was suspended, and another guy was forced to resign after he literally worked one of his trainees to death (criminal investigation pending), so that changed around some of the match-ups at the last moment.

So the guy on the right doesn't have a chance...or does he? Check out the crowd's reaction when they see the outcome!

The fight takes a while to start. The wrestlers spend a lot of time just staring each other down and walking around the ring trying to beat one another psychologically before one of them finally strikes.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Obama vs. Kucinich: Why I'm for Obama





So on the Left, two big names are Barack Obama and Dennis Kucinich. Obama is the only "major" (e.g. has a chance of winning) Democrat candidate that voted against the Iraq war from the start.

Kucinich is the "far left" candidate. A lot of liberals see Kucinich as the #1, for-real, no-bullshit progressive candidate that will always do what's right, never give in to Lobbyists, and do what he can. Obama is seen as okay, but a more watered down choice.

When I do those "choose a candidate" surveys online, at the end Kucinich always ranks #1. Obama comes in #2 by 1-2%

But you know what? I still want Obama to get it.

Kucinich riles up the base. He says the big, angry things that are on all our minds ("Bush should be impeached!" "Congress should get these votes right the FIRST time!") and I agree on both accounts.

But when I see him do it, I think, "For the most part I agree with you. But when you talk to me, you're preaching to the converted. So as much as I agree with you, I still wouldn't trust you to convince anyone who doesn't already see things our way".

When I see Obama, I think, "For the most part I agree with you. But better still, I trust that you can make our argument to the rest of the public, and sway them to our side. I think you have what it takes to be a leader not just to me, but to all of them as well"

Obama gets characterized as a mainstream candidate, and therefore as something tainted. To me, he's the much more thoughtful of the two. He sees nuance in issues, he sees the snags and difficulties of every problem. He doesn't offer easy answers. He might be the only American politician I know of where when he talks, I can see a truly intelligent, reasoned thought process behind his positions. Even if I don't agree with everything he says, I respect how he comes to his conclusions.

Love him or hate him, Kucinich is an ideologue. He's like the opposite of Bush, a Bush sweater inside out. That sounds great...but the problem is its the same black-and-white, I-am-right-and-they-are-wrong thinking. His simple, pointed slogans may be 1000% more to my liking than Bush's simple, pointed slogans . But slogans they remain. They're too rigid. They're positions too convinced of their own certainty.

I don't think he could persuade the average Joe of his positions, to say nothing of Republican-leaning people. My guess is he'd be a star too about 5-10% of the population, and alienate just about everyone else, to the point where if he became president most people would just hate him.

Eccentric Japanese Millionaire Arrested

A certain crazy Japanese Tycoon got arrested yesterday.

My main source has since left, but I figured I should still keep this low profile and not name names in the astronomically low chance that 70+ -year-old dude surfs the net, and reads English (which he doesn't speak), and finds this, and (at that point almost certainly), flips out again and takes it out on someone else.

Here's the article, unlinked and with the name blotted out. If you really want to you can probably find out who he is on google, just so long as this blog doesn't show up when anyone does a search about him.

Educational group boss accused of indecent assault

The chancellor of the ****** Gakuen group, which operates several universities across Japan, was arrested Wednesday on suspicion of molesting a female university worker, police said.

Arrested on suspicion of indecent assault was 71-year-old ***** *****. Investigators said that at about 6:30 p.m. on Oct. 14 last year, ****** approached a 23-year-old worker at a university operated by ****** ******, and led her into an elevator. Once they were inside he allegedly grabbed her, fondled her breasts and tried to kiss her.

******, who also serves as president of the university, has firmly denied the allegations against him.

"I definitely never did anything like that," he was quoted as telling police.

Prefectural police had been investigating the allegations after receiving a complaint from the woman in October this year.

Prefectural police suspect that ****** used his position as head of ****** to carry out similar behavior on an everyday basis. Police said that they had received reports that ****** authorities had silenced several female victims who complained about treatment they suffered, saying, "If you keep quiet about it none of this will get out."

******* comprises *** school corporations and one foundation. It operates over *** universities, high schools and technical colleges across the country. ****** took up the position of chancellor of ***** in *****.




Bonus Article-

Several female employees of ***** corporation, which operates universities and vocational schools, lodged a protest with the organization for being molested by its former head before he was arrested, corporation sources said.

They submitted a statement to the corporation in September, accusing then chancellor ******, now under arrest for molesting a female employee, of sexually harassing them and urging it to take measures to prevent a recurrence.

The sources said dozens of employees had been molested by *****. Prefectural Police suspect that he had sexually harassed and molested female employees on a daily basis.



Let me just say that this has been a long time coming. I've heard he smacks around people regularly, but for the most part people couldn't leave, because in Japan once you start a job you're expected to keep it until you retire. He pays people just enough that they can never leave.

While this guy is obviously an extreme case, stuff like this is pretty common in Japan. Bosses behave like petty tyrants, and employees just suffer and endure it all.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

The only Daily Show comedy you'll be seeing in a while

I don't know about you, but I'm going through withdrawal symptoms with the Daily Show off the air due to the writer's strike. But here are the writers campaigning from the picket line with a mock daily show episode.

It has grade Z production values, and as the hosting writer is the first to point out, he's no Jon Stewart. But the jokes are hilarious!

Mac OS X Leopard beating Windows Vista in Japan!

From Macworld- Unbelievable. Mac shot up from 15% market share to 60%. Microsoft went down from 75 to 28!

The Japanese market is notoriously difficult for American companies to get a grip on, but Apple is actually a great fit for this culture. The slim imacs are very popular in a country with limited space (Sony was ripping them off immediately), and Apple design is recognized as superior here.

To be clear though, Apple is outselling Microsoft for standalone upgrades. Leopard can sell more discs, and Mac can still have a much lower market share. Leopard is a product people can get excited about, but PCs shipping with Windows are like kitchen faucets or toilets- no-one thinks about them, no-one gets excited enough about them to replace their existing ones with new ones, and yet, whoever has a lock on those markets will be fabulously rich.

Still, Apple:s surging popularity could lead to a tipping point for the Mac in Japan. After market share reaches a certain point and the OS attains a certain level of familiarity among the average person and begins to be seen as an acceptable choice for the casual buyer, sales could explode -even more so than now.

by the way- I've been talking about switching for a while, but now I'm finally going to do it. At my new job, the University will buy me a computer. I'm going with the Macbook Pro.

Leopard eats Vista OS sales in Japan

Apple outsells Vista with Leopard in Japan in October

Jonny Evans


Sales of Mac OS X Leopard in Japan have exceeded those of Windows for the first time.

A report in Business Computer News claims OS X sales shot up between September and October, climbing from a rate of 15.5 per cent year on year to 60.5 per cent.

However, at Microsoft, Windows sales fell from 75.3 per cent to 28.7 per cent.

In the six days after Leopard's 26 October launch, combined single-user licence (46 per cent) and family pack (7.9 per cent) sales accounted for 53.9 per cent of the total OS-only market in Japan.

The report attributes Microsoft's failing Vista sales to its overly-complex pricing scheme and Apple's commitment to faster product development.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

The World as Seen by Americans, according to a Japanese Observer


Original without my translations at koichiben.com . Apparently the original-original is from demonbaby.com, though I can't find it there and am too lazy to keep looking.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Japanese Develop Brain Interface for video games


This just blows my mind. Props to Pink Tentacle

While recent developments in brain-computer interface (BCI) technology have given humans the power to mentally control computers, nobody has used the technology in conjunction with the Second Life online virtual world — until now.

A research team led by professor Jun’ichi Ushiba of the Keio University Biomedical Engineering Laboratory has developed a BCI system that lets the user walk an avatar through the streets of Second Life while relying solely on the power of thought. To control the avatar on screen, the user simply thinks about moving various body parts — the avatar walks forward when the user thinks about moving his/her own feet, and it turns right and left when the user imagines moving his/her right and left arms.

The system consists of a headpiece equipped with electrodes that monitor activity in three areas of the motor cortex (the region of the brain involved in controlling the movement of the arms and legs). An EEG machine reads and graphs the data and relays it to the BCI, where a brain wave analysis algorithm interprets the user’s imagined movements. A keyboard emulator then converts this data into a signal and relays it to Second Life, causing the on-screen avatar to move. In this way, the user can exercise real-time control over the avatar in the 3D virtual world without moving a muscle.

Future plans are to improve the BCI so that users can make Second Life avatars perform more complex movements and gestures. The researchers hope the mind-controlled avatar, which was created through a joint medical engineering project involving Keio’s Department of Rehabilitation Medicine and the Tsukigase Rehabilitation Center, will one day help people with serious physical impairments communicate and do business in Second Life.

(For video of the Second Life BCI, check the links on the Ushida & Tomita Laboratory news page, right above the first photo.)

Ripped off, in real life and on the net

Woke up and went to my parking spot this morning to find my gel bicycle seat stolen.

Came home and went on an Angels and Airwaves review search this evening to find my writing stolen.

edit- If you look very closely, at the end there's a small note that says (jf) -huh?-, which if clicked leads back to my blog.

It's barely noticeable and doesn't even look like a link; it took me 3 visits scanning for one to find it myself, so I doubt many other people saw it. But at least I got a backlink...

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Why Hollywood Writers are Going on Strike



Late night staples like the Daily Show and sitcoms like the Office are ceasing production this month as a result of a strike by the Writer's Guild. Wondering why? Here's a video by some writers breaking it down in simple terms.

Bonus- the writers (who often double as some of the actors) of the office explain their own stance from the picket line. They're pretty funny even when they're bitterly striking! Office star Steve Carrell (sp?) has striked too out of a sense of unity.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

English First offers to Hire Up To 1000 ex-Nova teachers in China!

Things might look grim for English teachers in Japan, but meanwhile the company EF English First is opening a school a week in China, and simply doesn't have enough teachers. They're offering to hire as many as 1000 ex-Nova teachers!


OSAKA — Private language education company EF English First said Thursday it is recruiting English language instructors who had worked for failed foreign language school chain Nova Corp for job positions in China. The firm said it will recruit up to 1,000 former Nova instructors for jobs in China where the group has been opening a new English language school almost every week to meet growing demand for English education ahead of the Beijing Olympics next year.


In a website message to former Nova instructors, EF English First has offered to shoulder costs for traveling to China and staying there for up to two weeks, and to help them find housing. EF English First operates in 50 countries around the world and has been growing quickly in the Chinese market, according to the website.


Direct Link Here.

They offer a "monthly salary paid in local currency and equivalent to that of a local, highly paid Chinese manager", but that still may not amount to much. Another issue is that English First have a 6-day workweek and are busiest on Saturday and Sunday, which is a real drag. Still, this is a great offer for anyone who came to Nova as a means of seeing Asia, and don't know what their next move will be. They'll even pay for the plane tickets!

More details on Nova's collapse, and President Sahashi's 60 Million Yen Office

Here's a great article detailing Novas's collapse from the Daily Yomiuri Some blogs and websites did a great job speculating, but this gives the hard details now that things are more out in the open. Nova sold 3 year contracts to students with lessons at 10-20 dollars a piece, but when they canceled, the back lessons they got refunded for suddenly cost about 50 dollars each, eating away at the refund. So even if the student got tired of the lessons after 6 months, Nova made out like Bandits.

Eventually a labor board ruled that 3 years contracts were outlandish, and other English schools limited contracts to a year. Nova puffed out its chest at the indignity of the ruling, and stated that Nova's management was still strong...and kept on selling 3 year contracts.

But rather than saving all the cash coming in, they aggressively opened more and more schools, all paid for by lessons that hadn't even happened yet, insured by a skimpy "give as little money back as possible" cancellation/refund policy that was no longer even really legal. See where this is going?

In the words of Stippy, Nova practiced 自転車操業 (Jitensha Sougyou), which is running a business like a bicycle. The faster you go, the more powerful the centrifugal force. But as soon as you reach a bump and lose momentum, you fall.

In this case, a student sued to get all his money back from a 3 year contract he no longer wanted, and the government sided with him. Nova prez Saruhashi complained, "well if we have to refund all the money, that means students can just sign up for 3 years and get the lowest lesson price, then cancel anytime they like". (Sounds like a good point- but keep in mind, the whole point of the ruling was to stop English schools from selling such long contracts in the first place, and Nova ignored the warnings).

So two things happened as a result. One, Nova was barred for selling long term contracts for 6 months, cutting off the invaluable source of revenue they had for all their extravagant expansions. Two, they were ordered to pay all the money back to the student. When this was publicized, pissed off wayward students that had long ago stopped coming and given up on getting a refund (and current students that still came, only because they had already paid for it and didn't see another option), started demanding their money back. When news that the company was in trouble hit, almost everybody began asking for refunds, and the whole thing collapsed.

So basically, Nova was a victim of its own financial extravagance, and questionable business practices, which it failed to change even after it was warned.


Bonus- Props again to Kayne for this great video. Apparently Nova's President Saruhashi was spending money like a drunken sailor. Here's a video detailing his luxury office.



31 October 2007
Former Nova President Nozomu Sahashi's Osaka office cost the company 60 million yen to construct, and consists of electrically-operated curtains, a mini-bar, a tea room, sauna for two, kitchen, living room, and a bedroom (with a double bed). The company also bears the 2.7 million yen monthly rent on the office as well.


豪華サウナに茶室も!NOVA前社長に特別背任の疑い

 経営破たんした「NOVA」の保全管理人が、猿橋前社長に特別背任の疑いがあることを指摘しました。会社を私物化しているとしていますが、その象徴は豪華な社長室です。奥には隠し扉があって、その先には茶室、寝室、リビング、そしてサウナつきの浴室まであ り、広さは100坪にも及びます。

 社長室は広さ約100坪あり、約6000万円あまりのリフォーム代や月270万円の賃貸料はすべて会社が負担していました。電動カーテンや高級な洋酒が並んだバーカウンターを備えています。さらに奥には、ベッドルームやサウナまで備えていましたが、ほとんどの社員は存在を知らなかったということです。また、社長室の公開に先立ち、記者会見したNOVAの保全管理人は「受講生が『お茶の間留学』で使うテレビ電話システムをめぐって、猿橋前社長に特別背任の疑いがあり、刑事告発を検討している」と明らかにしました。猿橋前社長は、このシステムを自分の会社であるギンガネットから仕入れの数倍の 値段でNOVA に卸す形にして、NOVAから少なくとも82億円を得たということです。猿橋前社長は、ギンガネットの株をすでにすべて売却していて、多額の現金を手にしたとみられていま す。

Sunday, November 4, 2007

Heather Mills Vs. Paul McCartney

I don't know why this caught my attention in the first place, but anyway, here it is...

So by now you may have heard of Heather Mills, estranged second wife of Paul McCartney. Amidst rumors Mills was having an affair with her personal trainer McCartney filed for divorce, and rather than taking a settlement, Mills struck back with a lawsuit that could amount to hundreds of millions, and made some extremely serious claims about McCartney, including that he had stabbed her, abused her, and pushed her into a bathtub while she was pregnant with their child.

Those are strong words. But let's face it, rock stars have done so many crazy things over the years that it's not hard to swallow. If R.Kelly and is sleeping with 14 year old girls and Gary Glitter is molesting prepubescent ones, this still makes McCartney look pretty par for the course. So last year I took the claims at face value and just assumed that Paul McCartney was a total asshole.

But after seeing excerpts of her interview on American TV the other day, I'm not so sure about Mills. She's hitting every TV station she can, with even more claims, and some of them are beginning to contradict themselves.

"I've been constantly harassed by the press. I've received death threats, and when I asked Paul for help, he did nothing".

Well wait a minute- you turned down this guys divorce settlement to go on a public crusade against him, suing him for hundreds of millions of dollars. Why are you going to him for help? Do you really expect him to be your knight in shining armor right now?

To say nothing of the fact you've accused him of beating and stabbing you. If it's untrue, I don't blame him for not doing anything to help. And if it is true, it mystifies me why you would expect him, of all people, to help you out now even more. He's supposed to be the worst man alive, remember?

"I had an agreement with Paul that I would say nothing if he agreed to take public responsibility for the breakdown of our relationship. But he has said nothing, and so now I'm coming forward".

She says this a full year after her allegations, mind you.

Here's a thought- why does anybody have to "take public responsibility" for the break-up? Why should Paul McCartney, let alone her, have to say a single word about any of this to the press at all? Why should any of this be in the public domain at all? She seems very concerned how all this is playing out in the media, but by paying so much attention to their opinions, she's missing the most obvious option, which is keeping them out of their personal lives entirely.

I haven't heard a word from Paul McCartney about any of this, other than saying its for the courts to hear, and pleading the public to let them have their privacy, and he's getting much better press than her by simple virtue of keeping quiet. Why not follow his example?

"Stella McCartney [Fashion designer and Paul's older daughter] is an evil woman. She hated me and did everything in her power to break up our marriage and come between me and her father".

So now you're dragging this guy's kids into it too? What does that have to do with anything? More importantly, you've accused this guy of the lowest of low crimes of abuse. So why turn around and lash out at his daughter for scheming to distance him from you? You said he was a wife-beater that stabbed and hit you, remember? How bitter can you be at one of his kids for keeping you from a man like that?

"I've had secrets locked in a vault, and if anything happens to me, the public will know the truth".

Un-uh. First of all, this makes you sound completely hysterical. It's also illogical considering you're berating McCartney for not protecting you against the death threats. If you think he's trying to kill you, why whine that he won't pay for protection? If you think it's someone else, then what's it got to do with him?

As for the allegations you're vaulting, you've accused this guy of beating and stabbing you already. Anything he did more serious than that (molesting your kid? Sodomy with underage boys?) and you should be taking that information to the police, your divorce lawyers or both, not locking it into a vault and making weird, cryptic comments about the truth coming out if you die. It sounds more like a shrill attempt at blackmail than any honest attempt to handle the proceedings maturely.

But here's the thing- given her latest, most petty tirades, at this point it just seems like she's grabbing at straws, and slinging every last vindictive at the family she can think of. The telling thing is that as much as she goes on about telling the public the "truth", her allegations are getting less and less serious rather than more and more, which suggests that she's simply running out of things to say.

So then I got to thinking...Mills does a great job crying in public and looking like a poor, beaten waif. But her charity work aside, her actual record for behavior is shakier. Reports are out that she was a high priced call girl in the early 90's, and there are pictures of pornography she did at the age of 20. As far as marriages go, she was once divorced, and left her next fiance at the alter to run off with McCartney.

Meanwhile, by Rock Star standards, McCartney had been an exceptionally normal person. He married Linda Eastman back in the late 60's/early 70's, and stayed happily married to her for about 30 years until her untimely death. They had some well-adjusted, happy kids that became successful adults. So up until marrying Mills (without a pre-nup, making him look like even more of a sport), he had about as good a track record as you can get.

So given all that, who are you going to believe, him or her?