Debate Afterthought

Again, both did well, but looking at the debate again now, Obama came out ahead on this one, subtly, but in the end surely. Not with the "knockout punch" that every partisan wanted to see for their man, not with glitz or a great little zinger soundbite for tomorrow's news, just a steady, consistent performance and demeanor that will serve him well with the people in the center that are still making up their minds on who to vote for.

First, the issues. Obama simply has a more compelling argument for the middle class, which is most people. He talked to the audience, not just the moderator. The polls show watchers are more convinced he would handle the economy well by a wide margin. The economy is what's on everyone's minds right now. That's the main issue of the season, and that's the issue Obama has come out front on.

It's true that McCain did a good job sounding convincing on foreign policy, especially around the 55:00 mark in the video of the debate in the post below. But it was an impassioned argument for the Bush world view of how to deal with Iran and other hostile states. There are conservative pundits claiming that McCain "schooled" Obama on foreign policy, establishing a master and student relationship. But you show me someone convinced that McCain mopped the floor with Obama on foreign policy, and I'll show you someone who voted for Bush both times, and would do it again if they could. He made a great argument for the Neocon view of the world. But as we all know, that's not where the center of the country is in 2008. The majority agrees with Obama on Iraq, and the debate polls show that while he still trails, Obama narrowed the gap on foreign policy last night, bringing McCain's lead from a chasm to single digits. It didn't widen like the McCain camp must have hoped it would.
If anything, all his performance did was demonstrate that on many issues, he really is just like Bush.

Second, the undertone things. McCain doesn't look at Obama once throughout the entire debate. When Obama addresses him, he just stares ahead stonily. When Obama makes a point, he looks down and gets this weird smirky insecure smile on his face.

As partisans, we're all looking for that great little jab by our man, and get excited when the opponent appears to show weakness. But swing voters don't see it that way; that stuff just turns them off, and McCain was doing more of it. McCain's camp is jeering that Obama agreed with McCain 7-8 times, as if that makes him his junior. But they should pay more attention to what swing voters thought. Focus groups using knobs to display approval and disapproval during the debates had no problem with this, and gave McCain considerably low ratings when he used his 5-times-repeated "Senator Obama just doesn't understand that..." line. The swing voters want the politicians to play nice, and Obama is doing a better job of that.

Prediction- McCain showed some contempt for Obama tonight, as if he's resentful that he even has to debate him (perhaps literally, considering he didn't plan to come). I suspect he's holding his temper a fair amount right now, at least by his own standards.

If Obama sees a spike from this week over the next few days, you could start seeing McCain start to flail and become increasingly touchier and on the attack during the next few debates. His base is screaming for blood, and his cheerleaders at The National Review have all kinds of zingers ready for him. He may begin to heed their advice and attack, much as Hillary Clinton did with increasingly desperate and nasty swings during the final debates of the primaries. Obama will keep his cool and not rise to the bait. Gradually, he'll look more presidential, and McCain will begin to look less authoritive and more petulant. And simply by keeping up his current path, Obama will squeak to victory.

This is why I've always thought Obama would do well, even when his poll numbers were lagging and everyone was screaming for him to fight back and change tactics. He has the winning policies, character and strategy, its just a matter of riding out the storms on the way, not getting distracted by the opposition, and getting his message out to lower-information voters that aren't already glued to the news. He isn't winning through spikes in the polls through quick, overnight changes in strategy. He's winning as the slow, steady guy in the race.