Obama-McCain Debate, Friday 9/26: Full Video, Reviews, Reactions and Polls

Here's the entire debate, in case you missed it-


I'm pretty cynical about these debates. Kerry and Gore told off Bush on the facts, but all the public heard were a bunch of sighing, pushy know-it-alls, while Bush came off like a regular guy who had the force of his convictions, even if he wasn't a big pencil-necked arrogant nerd like them. The body-language and tone of voice seemed to matter more than what was actually said. Like it was a task in calming scared wild animals.

So for me, this wasn't about who would win the argument. As far as I'm concerned, Obama won these arguments over a year ago, and McCain doesn't have the facts to change any of that. As cynical as this sounds, it's more a matter of who looks like they're winning, and I was worried. Obama has most of the facts on his side this time around, but he also has a habit of beginning most of his sentences with a series of ums, ahs, and false starts. For a lot of people, that might be all they hear. And while his ability to hear out both sides is a good trait, when it comes to shock-button issues like finding and killing Bin Ladin, that kind of attitude can come off as wishy-washy and weak.

The debate started out with McCain speaking high-mindedly about bipartisanship, while Obama stayed snappy, judgmental and accusative toward McCain and the Bush administration. The early spin-verdict: "He needs to project warmth!" It looked pretty bad.

But surprisingly, McCain took the bait, bought into Obama's frame and started acting the same way. McCain is a skilled politician that has a way of dodging questions without looking like he is, and keeping his confidence and sense of conviction the whole time. Obama wouldn't let up, and corrected mischaracterizations of his positions politely but forcefully and firmly. The result was a tense but measured debate without any major knock-outs on either side.

The big surprise? According to CBS after the broadcast, viewers Obama won this 40%-22%; and almost 2-1 margin. (Minutes ago, they released preliminary results of an official poll, which put Obama as winning among undecided voters 39-25, and leading on the economy almost 2-1). He led on every issue except terrorism, and he only lost that by about 7%. And the funny thing is, I'm pretty sure McCain led by more than that going in. So there's a good chance he actually turned people around on this.

46% of voters left with a more positive opinion of Obama, with only 7% saying they left with a more negative one. That's damn good. And the best part? One of the swing voters CBS kept in a room to gauge reactions from said he thought Obama won because he seemed relaxed and in control, while McCain "showed more emotion". So it looks like Obama is even winning the little mannerism game at this point.

Why such an surge of enthusiasm for Obama over what was at best an average showing by his standards?

My theory is this- Me and most of my friends that are pro-Obama have been watching this race in great detail, so we've seen him at all the press conferences, seen him act this way, and knew that this was what he was capable of, and that he could well have demolished McCain tonight. So for us, this was basically a draw, at best.

But the average low-information voter still doesn't know much about him. They buy into the hype that he's just an empty suit that needs a teleprompter to sound good, and that McCain is a decisive leader who has the experience and knows what he's doing.

Going into this debate with that frame of mind, one could only think, "Wow...Obama is actually a really articulate, knowledgeable, intelligent guy, and what he says actually makes a lot of sense. This guy really can go head-to-head with an experienced war-hero like Senator John McCain."

To that I can only say...well, duh. But I'm glad popular opinion is coming around. Gallups' last day of tracking had Obama up by 6-8 points in wake of the McCain-Campaign-Suspension debacle, averaged to +3 along with the previous 2 days of tracking. Add the response to this debate and allow a few days to let the lower earlier numbers fall off, and you could be looking at a good 5-8 point lead for Obama by next week off all of this. And this time, he may actually keep it.

Update: Video on the poll with changes. New stat- opinions on Obama's readiness to be president rose 13% among undecideds after this, 35 up to 48. Meanwhile, McCain's far superior figure of 79% going in slipped by 1 percent. So bottom line, Obama gained ground during a foreign policy debate that should have been a McCain stronghold, and McCain basically just held even.

Update 2: More interesting Poll results here.



Update 3: Even FOX News's focus group polling shows Obama came out ahead with voters-