Sarah Palin

Boring to most people that read this blog and gets lousy traffic aside from a few liberals such as myself on the google prowl, but I've been following John McCain's VP pick Sarah Palin far too closely not to write something about it...

Conservative David Frum, in a rare moment of candor off official party line-

Maybe [the gamble picking Palin] will work. But maybe (and at least as likely) it will reinforce a theme that I'd be pounding home if I were the Obama campaign: that it's John McCain for all his white hair who represents the risky choice, while it is Barack Obama who offers cautious, steady, predictable governance.

That's the funny thing about all this. All through this campaign, McCain and Clinton before him have hammered home that Obama is a virtual unknown, inexperienced and therefore a risky, dubious choice for the highest office. As McCain's ads ask ominously, "He's a celebrity...but is he ready to lead?"

Its the one credible thing they can say about him in the face of his charisma. And for a while, it looked like it might work. McCain, if you don't pay attention to his policies, as most people don't, seems familiar and reassuringly boring. The kind of boring that makes for a safe choice. And the media didn't do anything to break that notion. Dazzled by Obama, they more or less left him alone all summer, which was for the best. McCain might not have gone up much in the polls, but all the while, Obama went down, until the two were even.

The Palin pick changes all that though. Its what I call a flail, when someone in a high stakes battle loses their poker face and reveals their true insecurity by making a dumb, desperate move. By making a transparently political lunge toward women and Clinton voters, they've robbed McCain of the one advantage he genuinely had in this race. How can you keep railing against Obama for lack of experience when you've just put a 20-month governor and long-time small-town mayor a literal heartbeat away from the presidency?

Just as badly, it shows off McCain's impulsiveness, and tendency to make snap decisions without thinking it through. McCain has frustrated his staff with last-minute changes that leave them hanging in the wind before, but most of it was under the radar and not noticeable to anyone but wonks. This move puts his unpredictability out where everyone can see it.

I think the McCain campaign assumed that no-one in the media would dare attack her because to do so would be "sexist". Long have they loathed political correctness, perhaps they thought they could make it work in their favor for once. But it was a very tone-deaf choice. Clinton is over 60 and comes across as a matriarch. Even her worst critics concede she's made of steel. There's nothing 'sexy' about her for a tabloid to claw at.

Palin is 44 and attractive. Have you ever known the media to go easy on an attractive woman with a list of bizzarre personal scandals? The media has already been ferocious on her, unearthing literally more scandals and rumors than I can count (not the least of which that her 17 year old daughter is pregnant, pretty bad for a abstinence advocate that cuts funds for sex education). Most damningly, US magazine is running a tabloid-style cover story on her entitled, "Babies, Lies and Scandal". She's getting the full Britney Spears/Lindsey Lohan coverage. Say what you want about how far we've come with equality, our society still places an enormous amount of scorn and ridicule on younger women that are less than perfect.

Palin is smart and talented politically. I have to say, despite her policies and behavior I can't help liking her when I see older interviews with her. She may turn out to be a good campaigner.

But I don't think she can get out of this. It's too much mud, coming too fast, with too little time left in this election to learn on the road and turn things around. Her scheduled appearance at the RNC yesterday was cancelled, signalling that McCain's camp doesn't know what to do. They can't even boot her, because by doing so they would have to admit that they didn't know what they were doing.

Obama, to his credit, has pointed out that his own mother was 18 when she had him, stated that candidates' families, especially their children, are off limits, and said unequivocally that if he thought anyone in his campaign was trying to dig up dirt Palin's teenage daughter he would fire them. Experienced running mate at his side, Looking more like the grown-up in this election than ever before, he contines to walk forward, closer and closer toward the White House.




Update- Just saw Palin's postponed speech at the RNC. Like I thought she might be, she's a great campaigner, certainly the highlight of their convention.

The base was riled up and Republicans are ecstatic. She played up the "maverick" image and made them out to be a Red Change team to counter Obama's blue one. Smart. And she definitely brings energy to the campaign. It'll be really interesting to see how it plays out in the polls. The dems will see a bite out of their lead for sure.

What I wrote earlier stands, though. Obama still looks steadier and more dependable. She's good, but it seems...risky. She was kind of mean-spirited with some of her digs at Obama, speaking with sarcasm and putting aside all that "my opponent is honorable but..." stuff thats been going back and forth between Obama and McCain. It has spunk, but the whole line of attack seems smaller. I don't know if that kind of thing will be enought to move swing voters.