Who wants an iPad?
There had been talk of an apple tablet computer for years, but the actual product was something of a let-down to me. Rather than being a full-fledged computer, something along the lines of a Macbook Air with a touchscreeen and no keyboard, it's essentially an oversized iphone, running the iphone OS, with the same memory and only a slightly more powerful processor. No installation of programs beyond the typical iphone apps.
To me, it seems to occupy a middleground between the iphone and the netbook that I don't really need filled myself. It has neither the power and flexibility of the netbook already in my bag, which is as light, as small, and cheaper, nor the portability and convenience of the iphone in my pocket.
Still, Apple fans insist it's everything it's cracked up to be, and more. Here are the arguments for it that I've heard:
1. First generation products are always a bit lacking. Give it time, and it will be revolutionary.
I accept the possibility. But the future is another matter, and something that can be said about virtually any product that's currently lacking. Do I want what they have to sell now?
2. Sure, you don't want it, and neither do I. But this isn't for you or other gadget geeks, it's for your grandma who doesn't need a lot of computer power, and just wants something simple and easy to use.
On the surface, this seems like a good point. Programmers see it as a platform for end users who will consume, consume, consume their app store products. They're eager to expand their customer base, and if that means a simple computer that ignores the needs of geeks, so be it.
But I have to wonder about a computer designed for mom, pop and grandma:
1. They make up a very small share of the tech market. For the most part, they ignore it as much as they can.
2. They are the least likely market segment to buy a new fangled gadget, regardless of how cool it is. Almost none of these people even own an iphone, which was almost universally hailed as a brilliant game-changer from the outset.
3. They tend to follow the path of least resistance technologically, which does not entail a trip to the apple store for a new gadget, even one that really would be good for them. It means going to the department store and picking up a safe, generic windows box, which is as much as they can be bothered with.
There is a determination in the tech market to expand the appeal of computers beyond nerds and toward people less inclined to use them. Over the past ten years we've seen even the most technologically clueless people buy and actually use computers for basic functions. The ipad seems to continue this trend.
I propose that with the desktop PC market saturated, over the next ten years, you will see the opposite trend- the technologically illiterate segment of the market will just wither away as the previous generation shrinks, and young people that were raised on computers reach adulthood. It is them that the future of the market lies with. And ultimately it will be them that decide whether or not they need a device between a smartphone with the same capabilities and a cheap netbook of the same size with more options.
I have a final point though- as much talk as there is about how "my mom will love this", how many moms out there actually know about it, or care?
Has anyone actually asked them?
3 comments:
I'll preface this by saying that I do use a lot of Apple products, but I don't feel a need to have everything Apple. I'm willing to spend a little more money on devices I use regularly if they'll last a long time.
I do want an iPad; here's why.
When I got my iPhone, I didn't want a phone. I wanted a data device that I could port around with me. AT&T charges me $40/mo for that voice service and $30/mo for data plus another $5/mo for a small SMS allotment. When many look at the iPad, they see an over-sized iTouch, and that seems fairly accurate. An iTouch with 3G data would be exactly what I wanted. But the iPad isn't an iTouch. It's not something that could be taken from place to place quite as easily but also not something that a person has to scroll through 30 screens of text to read something as like a post speculating who would want the iPad. ;) I'm torn at the point of portability over screen space right now. I'll have to play with one to find out if it's okay or if I'll want whatever the next iPhone is. The iPad's $30/mo internet sans contract is very enticing compared to $75/mo. The $45 difference could easily pay for the nicest iPad over the span of a usual contract. Google Voice probably does everything else I need.
Who else would want one? I suspect that I'm not usual in the ecosystem of mobile devices since I have no use for voice. I think the iPad would make a great replacement to the use that a lot of people (including geeks) use laptops. I've thought for a long time that we're getting quite overpowered machines for surfing the web, sending messages, and producing documents. That said, I do have a netbook and consider it to be fairly worthless. The iPad gives a nice middle ground there that would allow 90% of my usual computing to be done on a dedicated device. That remaining 10% (that takes up 90% of my time) could be left to a cheaper (compared to other Macs), more powerful, and more comfortable to use desktop computer. That's the ecosystem I see for an iPad. There's no chance that I'd own the trifecta of portable computers paying for data on more than one device. That part is probably the norm for those looking right now.
Your point, and many I hear of, isn't about any of that but about Ma & Pa. I would really love for some device that does not allow the user to control files or processes directly to be available for this class of user. The cut down on support would be tremendous. I'd be willing to make them get one instead of a computer, but it has a few small issues. First is that they can't scan or print anything with the current setup. Non-techs don't live paperless so this is probably paramount to making it a replacement for their regular computers. Part of the iPhoneOS SDK does allow for attachments and Bluetooth usage, but for right now it just doesn't do any of that. Second, the iPad needs a computer to tether to the same way an iPhone does. I don't see this as a huge issue since I don't sync my iPhone all that often due most of its data is synced over the air, but I do see it as a big deal for backups. If Ma & Pa don't sync their iPad and it suffers a concussion, I'm back to the same support role that I've always been stuck in.
For marketing, I think that a large sum of the folks that get these devices will be doing so on the recommendation techies who don't want to support a web browsing user that will drive the masses to get iPads. This already happens when non-geeks buy laptops so I'd think it'll be a natural extension to offer these kinds of devices when the time comes that they're ready for the masses. Being the first generation device and not even available to touch yet, I don't think any predictions will do its killer application justice if it has one at all. I'm quite hopeful that the complete experience Apple provides will shift us in this direction for computing. Android's right behind them on this one anyway.
>When I got my iPhone, I didn't want a phone. I wanted a data device that I could port around with me. AT&T charges me $40/mo for that voice service and $30/mo for data plus another $5/mo for a small SMS allotment
I see what you mean. Here, we can get unlimited iPhone data 3g for 40 a month and a decent phone plan for ten more. But if I was back in America and had to deal with that AT&T bs, I would probably just get the tablet myself. I thunk this device gave apple some leeway to make 3g enabled portable devices that don't break their contract with AT&T.
In the long run I'll probably be wrong. If the price comes down to a hundred or 200 bucks...why wouldn't everyone get one for the reasons you're saying? But I still don't see the main market being elderly technophobes. It's still going to come down to younger tech savvy early adopters, even if those early adopters are pushing them to their moms.
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